Sunday, November 14, 2010

Out-of-the-box Idea 2: WAC6 to Create a 3-Division C-USA

Before I go into the idea, I want to first establish why C-USA is better than MWC and the WAC for UH. UH's situation is unique in college football--not many non-AQ schools have such a rich local TV deal and no team has the travel situation UH has.

ESPN:

C-USA has ESPN, part of their slightly more than $12 million in TV money. They are currently negotiating with ESPN for their new TV deal and are reported to be discussing how much of a raise they will get (CBS CS gave C-USA a 15% raise in their just-completed negotiations).

WAC has ESPN and the WAC openly says that ESPN will decrease their money and time slots after Boise State leaves this year. C-USA therefore could be on ESPN more than the WAC.

MWC does not have ESPN. VS does *not* have the exposure like ESPN.


Second National TV Deal:

C-USA has CBS CS for their secondary national TV partner.

MWC has CBS CS as their second national TV partner.

The WAC does not have a second national TV partner.


TV Money:

C-USA has slightly more than $12 million per year in TV money, but that will increase after ESPN gives them the raise that is being negotiated.

MWC has $12 million per year in TV money, but that may decrease after they lose Utah and BYU. Comcast used the mtn channel to force Utah customers to get Comcast instead of Dish Network (mtn also wasn’t on DirecTV for years), putting most BYU games and a lot of Utah games on that channel. TCU went to VS/CBSCS while BYU mostly was on mtn.

WAC gets $4.5 million per year from ESPN, but the WAC openly admits that ESPN will be reducing that number after BSU leaves. ESPN already gave a lot of the WAC’s time slots to BYU and is paying BYU more than it paid the entire WAC conference!


Local TV Deal:

C-USA lets its schools have local TV deals. They can show all games not shown on national TV and have free replay rights to all games not on national TV. UH could keep PPV/Oceanic/K5.

MWC does NOT let its schools have local TV deals, a major reason why BYU left. The mtn channel is supposed to replace all local TV deals. UH would lose PPV/Oceanic/K5

WAC lets its schools have local TV deals, which allows UH to have its PPV/Oceanic/K5 deal.


NCAA Basketball Money:

C-USA got $9.1 mil in 2008-2009, up $850k from the previous year because their teams have been winning games in the NCAA tournament. C-USA should go over $10 million this year.

MWC got $4.1 mil in 2008-2009, up $100k from the previous year. They got 4 teams in the NCAA tournament and some of their teams win games every year in the tournament, so they should pass $5 million soon.

WAC got $3.1 million in 2008-2009, *down* $150k from the previous year. Nevada’s NCAA tournament run was a long time ago and the WAC hasn’t won a tournament game for years, so the WAC will drop before $3 million soon.


Football Bowl Games:

C-USA has bowl games every year against *3* AQ Conferences—SEC, ACC, Big East. Those bowl games pay at least $1 million (Liberty Bowl pays $1.7 million to each conference). They have 6 bowl game tie-ins and are the backups for some other bowls.

MWC has bowl games every year against *3* AQ Conferences—ACC (Independence Bowl) and 2 Pac-12 teams (Vegas Bowl, New Mexico Bowl). Those bowl games pay at least $1 million (New Mexico Bowl will be the highest at $1.25 million).

WAC has bowl games every year against *0* AQ Conferences. The MWC dumped the Humanitarian Bowl because it paid just the $750k minimum so that will have a MAC team (and the WAC will probably lose the bowl soon since BSU is now gone). The New Mexico Bowl dumped the WAC to get a Pac-12 team. The Hawaii Bowl gets C-USA and a bowl-eligible UH, whether or not UH is in the WAC. The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl does pit the WAC against the Pac-12, but only in 2013. Army gets that bowl in 2011 and Navy gets it in 2012. The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl is increasing its payout and clearly looking to end its relationship with the WAC. The Sun Belt has better bowl tie-ins than the new WAC!


Karl Benson:

C-USA does NOT have Karl Benson as a commissioner

MWC does NOT have Karl Benson as a commissioner

WAC has Karl Benson as a commissioner.

These are just a few of the reasons why C-USA is a far superior conference than the WAC and MWC for UH. Remember, UH is in a unique situation because PPV/Oceanic/K5 makes $2.5 mil for UH and most non-AQ schools (like Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, Nevada, etc.) cannot get those types of lucrative local TV deals. C-USA has triple the TV money, triple the NCAA basketball money, far better bowl games (which bring millions into the conference no matter which conference school plays in them or not), and would enable UH to keep PPV/Oceanic/K5 while being with ESPN.


Why This Makes Sense for C-USA

Why would C-USA want UH? We live in a world where all non-AQ schools have problems with their budget and cannot just give charity to bail out UH. The simple answer is that C-USA does *not* want to add UH and it makes NO sense for them to add UH. However, there is a solution…

The Presidents of UH and rest of the WAC6 should get together and approach C-USA about joining as a GROUP to create a third division! C-USA could become a *true* C-USA, spanning the entire country. This would create a great situation for its TV partners, as the conference would have football and basketball games in every time zone to choose from.

The current C-USA West would become C-USA Central and a C-USA West would be created. La Tech would go to C-USA Central and fit nicely with the Texas and Louisiana schools already there. UTEP would go to C-USA West—UTEP does not have a travel partner in C-USA right now, but NMSU is a *perfect* travel partner for UTEP. Remember, UTEP isn’t even in the same time zone as the rest of the Texas schools—they are an outlier for the Texas schools but a short hop to NMSU. I’ve driven between Las Cruces and El Paso and that is a very short and easy drive. Traveling to Ruston for the C-USA central schools (Houston, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane) is pretty easy, in many cases a shorter distance than going to UTEP.

Why would this make sense for C-USA?

1. This protects the conference in the case that the Big East, Big 12, and MWC raid it.

2. C-USA is currently negotiating its TV contract with ESPN, which gives a one-in-a-decade chance for the WAC6 to show C-USA how it can make MILLIONS more from ESPN by adding the WAC schools. If the ESPN TV deal was done already, this would not make sense…so, the WAC has less than a year to get this deal done. Let us crunch some numbers:

The WAC6 has 3 home games each year with BYU that it owns the TV rights to. ESPN already valued BYU games at $1.2 million in their negotiations.

UH has consistently been able to get Pac-10 schools to play at Aloha Stadium and ESPN always shows those games. In its upcoming schedules, UH has home games against Colorado, USC, Army, Washington, and Oregon State. The TV rights to those games are significant. Unfortunately, the other WAC6 members have small stadiums and/or are located in areas with few recruits, so they don’t add any big nonconference games to the TV deal.

The WAC6 has shown the willingness to play games on weekdays, and now with C-USA in every time zone the new C-USA could offer weekday doubleheaders to ESPN, something that would be great for ESPN and for the visibility of the conference. C-USA schools haven’t shown as much willingness to play games not on Saturday or Friday, so the WAC6 can offer to play those games as the road time to the other C-USA schools or just between the WAC6. This is a way for C-USA to get more TV exposure (and $$$), and is pretty much the only way that La Tech, SJSU, Idaho, NMSU, and Utah State will even get on ESPN2/ESPNU. C-USA schools would not mind home games on weekdays as much as they do road games, so this is a way that the WAC6 can help C-USA…and get on ESPN, which is good for the WAC6. Win-win.

3. NCAA basketball money is a big part of C-USA’s revenue—they get more NCAA basketball money than the WAC, MWC, and Big West *combined*. Utah State and NMSU have excellent basketball programs that have shown they can get into the NCAA tournament. UH is significantly improved under Gib. That is already half of the WAC6! However, the WAC6 *clearly* doesn’t bring the same level of NCAA basketball revenue as C-USA, so the WAC6 will offer to take *no* NCAA basketball money from the C-USA’s tournament credits. The WAC6 will be treated like a brand new conference and share in only the NCAA basketball money that they bring into the conference until their share exceeds the C-USA average. That will be painful for the WAC6 for the first few years…but gives them a big incentive to improve their basketball teams. Thus, C-USA will have more basketball games to sell to TV and will not lose any of the NCAA basketball money that they earned.

The alternative plan that I thought of is to tell C-USA that *no* WAC6 team will get a share of the NCAA basketball money until it sends a team to the NCAA basketball tournament. I actually like that idea better because each WAC6 school will only get money when it actually earns money for the conference. However, schools like SJSU might get $0 forever and that would hurt them…but, if they don’t earn anything, should they really get a full share forever?

4. Travel subsidies will be provided for current C-USA schools that have to travel to Hawaii. C-USA currently plays 8 conference games per season, so that means that *3* current C-USA schools will play UH each year…that is only 3 trips to Hawaii every 2 years for the current members. Subsidizing 3 trips over 2 years is *very* low-cost for UH. The current WAC hurts its teams because they have to travel to both Ruston and Honolulu. The new C-USA does *not* have that problem because Ruston is actually an easy road trip for C-USA Central teams!

5. The Hawaii Bowl will need to *double* its payout, going from $750k to $1.5 million. C-USA currently sends a team to the Hawaii Bowl and they end up *losing* money due to the manini payout and the high travel costs. Travel costs for Hawaii to go to the Hawaii Bowl are *very* low (a week for the team in a Sheraton hotel is not cheap, but at least no airfare is needed), so C-USA would save a lot of money. Increasing the payout would mean that instead of losing say $300k on the Hawaii Bowl, C-USA would net something like $1 million in profit. Consider that $1.3 million to be UH’s “buy-in” to C-USA. Maybe if this happens, UH won’t even have to provide travel subsidies…the conference can provide the subsidies out of Hawaii Bowl money.

Why do I say to double the payout? Right now the Hawaii Bowl is C-USA vs. UH, so a new opponent is needed. Doubling the payout is what is needed to get the Hawaii Bowl to jump past other similar bowls and get a *Pac-12* team. Having a Pac-12 team would increase TV ratings and the increased visibility should get sponsors to pay more—a game against a Pac-12 team is worth more than the current game against C-USA. If needed, HTA would be tapped to help boost the payout. This would put the Hawaii Bowl above the New Mexico Bowl (which just dumped the WAC) and the Kraft Bowl (which is hoping to dump the WAC). That means that the Hawaii Bowl would get a higher pick of Pac-12 teams then either of those bowls. If those bowls don’t want the WAC, $%#& them and steal their Pac-12 selection. 


Some Loose Ends

Karl Benson would be a commissioner with no teams in his conference. He’s used to losing a lot of teams, but this would be a first even for him. He’s made a generous salary (I think he’s around $350k per year now) for so long from the WAC that I don’t feel badly for him…he’ll be fine financially and maybe some lower-level conference might want him someday.

Texas State and UT-San Antonio would really lose out on this deal, as there would be no conference for them to join. UT-San Antonio could use a few years to build up its team anyway. If C-USA gets raided by any conference (Houston to MWC, etc.) then maybe TXST and UTSA can be invited then. TXST and UTSA would prefer to be in C-USA than the WAC anyway.

One not-insignificant reason for C-USA to help kill the WAC is that it appears that the WAC is trying to take over C-USA territory. It appears that the WAC is giving up on being a *Western* conference and is going to have a Southwest focus—adding TXST, UTSA, and trying to get North Texas clearly shows the direction the WAC is going. That directly competes with C-USA for TV market, recruits, and media attention. If C-USA doesn’t respond, they will end up splitting one of their big markets (Texas) with the WAC, which will cost them *more* money than adding the WAC6.

How is this C-USA18 different than the WAC16? The TV contract will be more than $10 million more than what the WAC16 had. The divisions make a lot of geographic sense instead of that idiotic “pod” thing that the WAC16 looked at. The NCAA tournament money will pass $10 million and current C-USA schools won’t lose anything that they would have been getting—and current WAC6 schools wouldn’t have gotten much anyway in the WAC. The Bowl games are FAR better than what the WAC16 had. Money was the main reason the WAC16 broke apart and money will keep the C-USA 18 together…especially in these times where money is so crucial for Athletic Departments to survive.


The sad fact is that NMSU, SJSU, La Tech, Idaho, and Utah State bring *nothing* to attract a big national TV deal. They don't get TV ratings since they don't have large fan bases. They don't have TV-friendly high-scoring offenses like UH. They play in small stadiums that make it hard to attract big-name opponents.

Those 5 teams are only shown on national TV when they are playing a big opponent...but BSU, Fresno State, and Nevada aren't going to be conference opponents anymore. Schools bring value by getting AQ opponents to play at their stadiums--but those 5 teams *never* get that! They play bodybag games to cash $1 million checks, but that brings NOTHING to the conference since the home team owns all TV rights.

When I did my research, I found that UH is the *only* WAC6 school that is getting Pac-10 or military academies to play at their home stadium. BSU had home games with Pac-10 schools like Oregon and Oregon State. Fresno State had home games with AQ schools from all around the country. Nevada had a home game with Cal this season. The other WAC members travel to get paychecks and bring NOTHING to the conference's TV deal. So, I had to figure out how to have UH by itself justify the WAC6's TV value to C-USA...that was a hard problem because C-USA gets 3x the TV money than the WAC gets *with* BSU, Nevada, and Fresno.

Note: I learned from one of the comments that I was WRONG when I said that none of the other schools get military academies to play at their home stadium.  Just this year (I don't know why I checked past years and not this year, that was my mistake) Navy played in Ruston.  The commentor also said that it shouldn't matter if the game is played in home stadiums or at neutral sites, but there *can* be a significant difference.  As we have seen numerous times over the past few years, neutral site games can be exempted under the conference TV deals and those TV rights can be sold separately...so, that would bring no value to the *Conference* TV deal.  For example, this is how BYU was able to get games on ESPN by moving games out of Provo to another location in Utah.  Boise State played a neutral site game against Virginia Tech this season and it was not covered under the WAC conference deal or the ACC TV deal (BSU got $1.25 million and Virginia Tech got over $2 million).  BYU played Oklahoma at the Cowboys stadium, Oregon State played TCU at Cowboys stadium, etc.

By the way, I checked Navy's site and it appears that the Navy-Louisiana Tech game was just available on ESPN3.  I checked the WAC announcement of the football games that ESPN was showing this season and the Louisiana Tech-Navy game was *not* listed.  In other words, La Tech hosting Navy brought NO value to the WAC TV deal.  When UH plays a Pac-10, Big 10, or military academy, those games are almost always on ESPN (not just ESPN3)...I cannot remember the last time a UH game against an opponent like that was not on ESPN or ESPN2.  A game that ESPN does not bother to show on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU brings *no* value to the conference TV deal.  So, I was wrong that none of the other schools host nonconference schools from the Pac-10 or military academies...however, it appears that even when Louisiana Tech does so it brings ZERO value to a conference TV deal.

3 comments:

  1. Another interesting idea, Garret.

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  2. I think it's about as likely as me winning the powerball, but I'd take both and be happy. The best part of the new set up...no Benson.

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  3. Tech host Mississippi State in 2008 and will be coming back in the next few years. We hosted Nvay this year and Army owes us a return game.

    So UH isn't the only WAC 6 school hosting military academies or AQ schools (you said Pac-10 schools, which is true - we haven't hosted a Pac-10 school since 1997, but we have had the SEC, Big 12 and ACC (Miami) as home games in the last ten years).

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